Indeed, I suspect that the person most likely to break into this group of front-runners would be a businessman who stands up against President Obama's big-government proposals, a retired general who objects to Obama's foreign policy or a civic activist who rallies the public against some liberal outrage. If a Republican elected official emerges, it will probably be because he or she champions some populist cause, not because that person is a fine representative or senator or governor.Hmmm, let's see: businessman (Hoffman), general (Hoffman has a distinguished military background), champion of a public cause (can't deny that Hoffman is championing a cause), not a fine representative (Hoffman doesn't seem to care about NY-23 issues so he probably wouldn't be a fine representive if elected).
No, if Hoffman doesn't win the NY-23 (or if he does), he is the kind of candidate that Kristol believes will be nominated for President. Lucky for most of us, history proves that 99% of William Kristol's predictions are wrong.
Note: it's likely Kristol's first two predictions are correct. It's clear the future of the Republican party is to become more conservative. It is doing this by completely shedding it's more "moderate" members to become a regional party of the South.